- How the model worksOrganic revenue(m) = Sessions(m) x Conversion(m) x Orders kept x AOV
- For each month m from 0 to 12: Sessions(m) = your monthly organic sessions x VisitRamp(m). Orders(m) = Sessions(m) x your conversion rate x ConversionRamp(m). Organic revenue(m) = Orders(m) x orders kept after returns x average order value. Lag is 0 months because an order happens in the visit. Cumulative revenue is the sum from month 0 to m.
- Monthly organic sessionsProfile default, editable
- Sample number. Replace with your organic search sessions from GA4, non-branded if you can split them.
- Conversion rate, Americas2.59%
- Dynamic Yield e-commerce benchmark, Americas region, past twelve months to September, read Oct 2026 (the page names the month but not the year). Completed purchases divided by visitors, site-wide and all channels, not organic-only. Directional.
- Conversion rate by verticalHome and furniture 1.22%, fashion 2.74%, consumer goods 2.32%, beauty 5.38%, luxury and jewelry 0.69%
- Dynamic Yield, same benchmark, global by industry. Use the line closest to your store if you have no organic figure of your own.
- Lower conversion for paid-led and big-catalogue profiles1.3% and 2.0%
- Assumption, adjustable. Non-branded organic visits on thin or duplicate pages convert below the whole-site average.
- Average order value, Americas$152
- Dynamic Yield, Americas region, past twelve months to September, read Oct 2026. The page shows $ without naming the currency; read here as US dollars. The big-catalogue profile uses $120 as a sample number.
- Orders kept after returns100%, editable
- Assumption. Set it to 100 minus your return rate to see revenue net of returns.
- Starting channel mixGoogle Ads 38.3%, Meta Ads 16.8%, direct 13.8%, organic search 9.9%, email and SMS 8.4%, other 12.8%
- ThoughtMetric, share of attributed e-commerce revenue across brands it tracks, May 2026 (published 1 Jun 2026). Email 7.7% and SMS 0.7% are combined; other is Bing Ads 3.4%, referral 2.7%, organic social 1.5%, AI search 0.4%, Pinterest Ads 0.3% and other or custom 4.5%. Sample size and attribution model not stated. Used only for the channel chart.
- Visit ramp multipliersExpected 2.00 at M12; conservative 1.50 at M12
- Assumption, adjustable. Shaped to Shopify's SEO guide (Oct 2025), which puts typical SEO results at three to six months and 12 months or more in highly competitive verticals.
- Months 0 to 3 close to flatExpected 1.05 at M3; conservative 1.02
- Months 0 to 3 are tracking, crawl, mapping and schema work. Shopify's SEO guide (Oct 2025) puts typical results at three to six months, so the model shows little movement before month 4.
- Conversion ramp multipliersExpected 1.20; conservative 1.10, both reached at M9
- Assumption, adjustable. Reflects a larger share of organic visits landing on category and product pages that match the query instead of blog posts or filtered duplicates.
- US e-commerce market$340.2 billion in Q2 2026, 17.1% of total retail sales
- US Census Bureau quarterly e-commerce report, adjusted for seasonal variation but not for price changes, released Aug 18, 2026. Preliminary; the Census Bureau revises it in the Q3 2026 release on Nov 19, 2026. Context only, not used in the formula.